Drawing Conclusions

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An article in Wired Magazine describes a series of experiments from the 40's, based on the animation of two balls. "In the first film, the red ball races across the screen, touches the blue ball and then stops. The blue ball, meanwhile, begins moving in the same basic direction as the red ball". When asked to describe what happened, people said, the red ball hit the blue ball and caused it to move - drawing a conclusion they couldn't possibly know.

In a later experiment a small blue ball moved in front of a larger red ball - and the subjects said, the red ball is chasing the blue ball. When I read the description, I leapt to that conclusion too. It can't be true - the balls are inanimate, but we seek to explain things and we use the words we know. When we're having to quickly assess a new situation for a threat, this is obviously a useful ability.

But we use this skill in situations where we should not. That's we spend part of the explanation of the Feedback Model explaining behavior. When we give feedback, we have to describe the behavior - the red ball and the blue ball are moving in the same direction - not the conclusion we draw - that the ball is being chased. Because we can't know that our conclusion is right - and if we get it wrong, it takes the effect out of the feedback. When giving feedback, we need to stop ourselves drawing conclusions.

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/12/ff_causation/all/1

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Conclusions Are Not Useful

Great article.

Imo, the "ability" to draw conclusions is not an ability at all. It is a side-effect of another actual capability that enabled humanity to evolve, and that is to generalize. "That animal bit my friend, therefore it will bite me." That's a pretty good generalization, and can help you avoid getting bitten again. Of course, it also leads humans to kill or flee from sometimes harmless situations.

It also leads to humans generalizing about each other. And, as a side effect, it leads to humans interpreting each other's behaviors and drawing conclusions and making assumptions. 

I do not believe that interpreting the behavior of others and concluding they are angry, calm, sad, or happy is a useful skill. I think it is just something that we happen to do. We are able to control our appearances and behaviors, so any interpretation is highly suspect. In fact, I would even argue that most of us don't even know what our own internal feelings are any more than most offending concluders. Are you depressed? Or are you just tired? Do you really know?

Evolution works in that nature produces random stuff, and some of it dies off and some of it lives on. Just because something lives on doesn't mean it was the reason for success. Sometimes "features" that stink piggy back on beings which evolve into existence and then continue on for other reasons.

Thus, I think it is actually a detriment, not a skill, and there are few situations where it can be used. Best to just learn to observe behavior and ask questions rather than try to imitate John Edward and draw conclusions.